Wednesday, January 9, 2013

StoreIntel Recap & Other Thoughts

  • Gap---we were a contrarian on this name, as we have been bullish on this name since our initial mall walk on December 18th. At that time GPS was trading at $32.02. We reiterated our strong feeling towards the name as late as 12/28/12 when the stock dropped to $30.43. We again reiterated our call prior to comps, which saw GPS beat expectations with a plus 5 on top of a minus 4 for 2011. We were very bullish on the Old Navy division which posted a very strong plus 12 comp. The stock rose to a high on 1-3-13 of $32.56.
  • TJX and Ross Stores - Another win for StoreIntel. As we worked with our clients, we were very bullish on these two names all through the month of December. Ross Stores posted a plus 6 on comp day with a raise on q4 guidance while TJX also posted an impressive plus 6. We are still very positive on these two names.
  • Abercomribe & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale - The teen space completed a very competitive holiday season. As we previously reported, our two favorites in this space are ANF and AEO. We feel that ANF is the best in class with controlled promotions through the holiday period. We were very impressed with continual refreshing new product as we moved through the month. Their new receipts of printed denim and dyed to match knit and woven tops were outstanding. American eagle was a half a step behind but also showed controlled promotions and an excellent flow of new items through the holiday period. ARO, on the other hand, we strongly feel had a lackluster holiday period with concern on our part regarding their margins through the holiday period. We will get a better feel when these 3 teen chains report tomorrow morning – stay tuned!

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